Activity among Chaco's small and medium-sized businesses ended the first half of 2026 with a cumulative contraction of 6.7%, although June delivered a second consecutive monthly improvement. The Chaco Economic Federation's SME Activity Index recorded a 4.1% year-on-year fall and a seasonally adjusted 1.1% rise from May. Relief is visible, but it is not yet enough to qualify as a recovery.
The composition of the figure explains that caution. Four of the seven sectors surveyed remained down from a year earlier, while three grew. The gains did not come from a broad restoration of incomes: they were linked to the mid-year bonus, Father's Day, the World Cup, targeted financing tools and the agricultural cycle. Shops and service providers maintained sales through promotions, discounts, bundles and credit cards, sacrificing margin to preserve volume.
Manufacturing was the most troubled sector: it fell 15.7% from June 2025, accumulated a 12.1% half-year decline and dropped 1.9% from May. It has now gone eighteen months without a positive reading. Companies report high fixed costs, insufficient sales and difficulties replacing machinery because they cannot meet installment or check payments, a combination that blocks the investment needed to escape the downturn.
Food and beverages fell 9.6% year on year and 8.8% cumulatively, losing in June part of the improvement recorded in April and May. Personal and professional services declined 8.9% because households and businesses postpone services when incomes tighten. Pharmacy and perfumery dropped 6.9%, driven less by lower need for medicine than by purchases shifting to informal outlets, e-commerce and large national chains.
The three growing sectors expose the rebound's fragility. Footwear, clothing and textiles rose 4.4% from a year earlier because of winter and commercial dates, but remained almost flat for the half-year and still face smuggling. Fuel sales advanced 6% on agricultural demand, although growth slowed from previous months. Hardware, construction, household goods and furniture jumped 7.5%, supported decisively by the Chaco Construye program using the provincial Tuya card.
Business sentiment combines hope with limited capacity to act. Some 47.6% expect conditions to improve over the next twelve months and only 5.8% foresee deterioration, yet 43.3% say this is not a good time to invest, against just 29.8% who say it is. The gap reflects firms imagining a more favorable horizon while operating with scarce liquidity, rising utility bills, taxes and rents, and informal competition from neighboring countries.
The next reading must show whether June's monthly increase began a trend or merely captured temporary stimuli that do not recur every month. The continuation of Chaco Construye, the pace of the farming campaign and household purchasing power will be decisive. With expectations improving faster than investment, the half-year result carries a warning: the decline has moderated, but four sectors still produce and sell less than a year ago.
